Another week, another set of IBG questions ready to be answered. Let’s kick off Purdue week with my responses to this week’s IBG hosted by the Irish Round Table.
A couple weeks ago, I took some time to take my first stab at the bowl picture, and where ND would land. Now that things seem quite a bit more clear, it is time to take yet another look at things.
First it is time to take a look at the BCS picture so we can properly find out where the Irish may fall:
BCS Championship: Texas vs. Florida Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Oregon Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Pittsburgh Fiesta Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Boise State Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. TCU
This is somewhat similar to what I had last time around. Major changes this time though is that we now know Ohio State has clinched the Big Ten championship and will be Rose Bowl bound. Also, the Big Ten at large bid seems to have fallen apart that I initially gave to Penn State and I have now given their spot to Pittsburgh.
The way I see it, Pitt is flat out playing too well to ignore. While Penn State is an obvious bigger draw for tickets, how in the world can you take Joe Pa’s crew when they are on the edge of BCS at-large eligibility (#14) while Pitt is in the top ten. In the mix though is Oklahoma State, and the Fiesta may just try to take them in to replace Texas if they play continue to play well.
The games that will affect these new projections will be: Penn State vs. Michigan State this week, Pitt vs. Cincinnati next week, and OK State vs OU next week.
The PSU/MSU game has all the makings of a trap game. MSU is at home and they haven’t been playing half bad all season. Regardless though, I don’t see PSU making a big enough statement to boost their ranking much higher, and this is there last chance to do so. Unless PSU can blowout MSU, they are likely out of the mix.
If OK State were to beat OU, their ranking will likely get a boost up; however, if they were to fall they will fall out of the running completely. Right now, I can’t see OU losing that game at all, meaning OK State will likely fall out of the running.
Pitt/Cincinnati is an interesting case. I could very well see both of these teams making the BCS regardless of the outcome; however, things would get dicey if OK State manages to beat OU. In that case, I can’t see two Big East teams going BCS bound as the Fiesta will likely tow the Big XII conference line. However, if OU does indeed win, neither team is going to take a very big hit in their rankings. Except both teams to be BCS bound this season.
Now what does this mean for the Irish?
Well, initially I felt the Gator Bowl was all but lost for the Irish after falling to Pitt, and if you remember I projected that if the Irish feel out of the Gator Bowl, the Cotton Bowl would snatch the Irish up over an SEC team as this is the last year they can do so until new contracts are made.
Now that chaos has completely shaken up the BCS top 10 though, the Gator will likely not be taking the second best Big East team, but the third best since two Big East teams are likely BCS bound. In this case, that means the choice the Gator has is between West Virginia and Notre Dame and Notre Dame will win that battle.
Although that is completely dependent on ND winning a game. West Virginia will likely end 8-4, and I can’t see ND being taken if drop their last two games, falling to 6-6 (oh dear God not again…). The Irish can still likely edge out West Virginia at 7-5.
Of course, if the BCS doesn’t take two Big East teams, that will mean the Gator will take either Pitt or Cincy, and there is no way you could justify the Irish going over either even if they win out and finish 8-4. If that happens, ND could very well be Cotton Bowl bound. However, they have to be good enough to replace Ole Miss who will likely finish out at 8-4. Unlike the Gator, I’m not completely confident that the Cotton would replace ND over Ole Miss if the Irish finish 7-5. It isn’t out of the realm of the possibility, but not as definite a selection for sure.
With all that being said, since my current projections this week have two Big East teams in the BCS, and the fact I think ND will still win one out of their last two, I project the following for ND:
Gator Bowl: Miami vs ND
I’ll revisit the bowl picture once again next week as I’m sure everything will be turned completely on its head once again.
It has been quite a nice stretch of few days for Irish fans to say the least. For the first time since the home opener against Nevada, Notre Dame finally beat the living hell out of someone.
Now yes, Washington State is awful. I know this and I have no illusions that this will translate to a BCS victory or something crazy like that. But the Irish came in to a game that was being touted as some kind of psuedo-bowl game. Not only that, a game in which you have everyone just knows you are going to crush the Cougars. It was the classic setup for the Irish to come out completely flat and leave us all wondering “why in the world is this game so close?!”
However, the exact opposite happened. Notre Dame put on a display of their superior talent and never let up on the Cougars. It is the exact kind of effort you want to see and expect to see in this kind of lopsided match-up.
Now there really isn’t much to say about the game in all honesty, but there were three big things that stood out to me in Saturday’s matchup. The first two are Weis’ two plays of the game:
Let’s start with Golden Tate’s amazing catch. First off, this guy is playing in some other universe right now. Remember back when we could complain about Tate dropping passes? Ever since Floyd went down, that has been a distant memory. Tate has been nothing less than a vacuum as of late. Just take a look at that play and try to break down the insanity you just saw. He goes up for a jump ball against not one, not two, but three defenders. He then is able to out-leap all of them and get his hands on the ball. Then he is able to come down with the pass while all three defenders are trying their damnedest to rip it away. They fail, Tate succeeds, and my mind is blown.
Then you have Ragone’s play on the blocked extra point. In the big scheme of things, does this play really matter? Probably not. It would be very easy for everyone on the Irish FG squad to jog the play out and think “so what…two points won’t matter for them.” And that could be a play in which Washington State gets a huge momentum swing, rallies the troops and gives everyone their sidelines the single thought of “we can do this!”
But no, Ragone flew down the field and saved the two points. Not only that, Ragone got up excited after the play and the rest of the team came out to congratulate him as well. What this shows me is that the entire team was fired up and ready to stomp on the Cougars.
The final thing that stood out was Weis literally chewing out his entire team after they were comfortably in the lead. Seems he saw the edge that was demonstrated by Ragone’s hustle play was quickly fading and I’m sure he very eloquently reminded them that the game was far from over. That is definitely the kind of attitude you want from the head coach. Sure it is great you are destroying your opponent, but you can’t let heads grow too big before the final whistle.
Just take a look at the ND/USC game. USC was destroying us. Now, I don’t want to take anything away from our boys in the least, but there is no doubt USC aided us in our comeback: soft play, lack of effort, and complete lack of discipline helped spur a near upset.
Weis saw the edge slipping, and went to get it back. He didn’t want a win, he wanted to continue stepping on Washington State’s throat until the final whistle. Kudos to him.
Now shifting gears ever so slightly, Charlie Weis had a lot of news on the injury front from his press conference today. There was lots of good news, but also a little bit of bad news as well, so let’s get that out of the way first.
Dayne Crist is now out for the season with a torn ACL. It is a rough break for Crist to only get to see a little playing time and then get injured on what was more or less a freak accident. Thankfully though, we still have a reliable backup in Evan Sharpley, so it isn’t like the cupboard is bare. Also, WR John Goodman has now been moved into #3 on the depth chart at QB as an emergency plan (he played QB in high school). So yes, the news is not good, but folks, this is why you continue to recruit QBs like we have — you never know what will happen.
Now for the good–no not good, great news: Michael Floyd has been cleared to play against Navy this weekend. Now Weis later went on to say in his presser that Floyd would not be “in every play”, but I’m sure very few Irish fans really care (I sure don’t). Floyd is not a requirement for the Irish to beat Navy, but it sure won’t hurt and would serve as a great game to ease him in because we will definitely want to be full strength for the game against Pitt.
To wrap up Irish injury news, Weis also said Robby Paris will return this Saturday; however, Allen is still day-to-day. If you want to check out Weis’ presser, you can do so over at und.com.
To close, with the Irish becoming bowl elidgible with this win, and with the overall BCS picture becoming slightly more clear, it is time to start making some predictions of where the Irish will end up this season.
First off, I’m going to make this statement right now: get the BCS out of your head. I’m not joking, get it out of your mind right now.
As a recap of our current contract with the BCS, the Irish must be in the top eight of the BCS in order to receive and automatic bid, and folks, with our week schedule, and our only possible signature win being a possible defeat of Pitt, things don’t look good for us. Currently, we sit #22 in the BCS, #19 in the AP poll, and #21 in the coaches poll. It will be very hard for the Irish to climb up into not just the top 8 for the automatic bid, but even the top 14 to be considered at-large eligible. We will not only need to win out, but also receive some help from the teams above us to have a shot.
Let’s be realistic here, the Irish do not have a good shot.
In order to better figure out where the Irish can land though, I will need to actually project the BCS bowls as the bowl selection system works on conference tie-ins and crazy selection orders. So with that said, here are the usual BCS bowls and their conference tie-ins:
BCS Championship: #1 BCS vs. #2 BCS Rose Bowl: Big Ten Champ vs. Pac 10 Champ Fiesta Bowl: Big 12 Champ vs. At-large Orange Bowl: ACC Champ vs. At-large Sugar Bowl: SEC Champ vs. At-large
Rules for At-large: Big East champ, must be taken in one of the at-large spots. Also, if a non-BCS conference team is ranked #12 or higher in the BCS, they also gain one of the at-large bids — only one team may receive such an automatic bid.
The only other rules to keep in mind is that if a bowl loses their conference tie in to the BCS title game, they will have the first pick at a replacement team — trying to stay to tradition they will try to stay in the same conference, but if they can’t, they will pick an at-large team. Furthermore, only two teams max from the same conference can be selected to the BCS (there are exceptions, but they won’t happen this season). Finally there is a set selection order to fill in the remaining at large bids. This year it will be in the order of: Orange, Fiesta, and then Sugar.
Now looking at this season, two of the at-large spots will be taken by the Big East champ and a BCS-buster as both TCU and Boise State are both comfortably in the top 12 of the BCS and at least one will definitely remain there. Now, looking at the remaining schedules, I project the following:
BCS Title Game: #1 Florida vs. #2 Texas
This means the Sugar Bowl and Fiesta Bowl lose their conference tie-ins and will be able to select replacements. However, the ACC champion will remain as well as the Big 10 and Pac 10 champs. This means the Orange bowl has a team locked and the Rose Bowl is locked. The remaining slots will then be filled in the following order: Sugar (BCS #1 replacement), Fiesta (BCS #2 replacement), Orange (at-large), Fiesta (at-large), and Sugar (at-large). So if you were able to follow that mess, hopefully you can follow my logic in projecting the following:
Sugar: Alabama vs. Penn State Fiesta: Cincinnati vs. Boise State Orange: Georgia Tech vs. TCU Rose: Iowa vs. Oregon
My shakiest selection is Penn State, as who knows what is going on with the Big Ten week-to-week, so I could see a different at-large being taken. I selected both BCS-busters of TCU and Boise State because one must be selected automatically and the other will finish far too high in the BCS to ignore over other marginal one and two loss teams much further down.
So with that mess out of the way, where does that put ND?
Most ND fans know that the Gator Bowl as a tie in with the Irish if they aren’t playing in the BCS. Some may even be aware that this is the final year that the Gator Bowl can select ND as their contract will move to a SEC/Big 10 match-up next season. The Gator’s usual tie in is ACC vs. Big 12/Big East/ND; however, according to their website, since this is the last year of the contact they will select a Big East team or ND.
But here comes the other wrinkle: the Cotton Bowl, a match-up that pits the Big 12 runner up vs. a SEC team, has the right to select ND over a SEC team once within the next three years. Should the Irish go 10-2 or 9-3, they definitely would be an attractive selection over what would be the fourth best SEC team at best (the Capital One bowl gets the next best SEC team after the BCS, Cotton gets the next best SEC-West team).
However, while the Cotton Bowl would likely love to bring ND down to Dallas, and as much as I would love to see a ND bowl game in my backyard, if the Irish win out, I don’t see it happening. From my understanding of this crazy system, the Gator Bowl has the first pick of Big East teams or a non-BCS-bound ND before the Cotton Bowl selects their SEC representative that ND can replace. So the Gator has to look at whether or not to take ND or select a non-BCS-bound Big East team over them.
The only team that could even likely replace ND would be Pitt, whom we play in just a couple of weeks. Should ND fall to Pitt, the Gator would likely take Pitt team over ND as they will be a higher rank and have a head-to-head edge on us. In that case, ND would likely fall to the Cotton Bowl so they can cash in their ND replacement clause while they still can.
So if we are to assume ND can win out their schedule, I project ND to play in the Gator Bowl come January; however, should ND fall to Pitt, I will project them for the Cotton Bowl — it all hinges on that game. I will continue to monitor the bowl picture as the season progresses from here on out, and hopefully now that we got the complicated matters out of the way, I won’t have to write nearly as much!
Quick hit post as it seems tonight will help in determining where the Irish end up in the bowls. I stated previously that the Sun Bowl would be the likely destination for a 6-6 Irish. Well, it seems there are some goofy bowl rules that don’t allow bowls with conference tie-ins take a 6-6 at large team if there is a conference team that has seven wins. If my explanation makes your head spin, maybe this will help.
In short, if Louisville beats Rutgers, the Irish could be Sun Bowl bound. If not, these are the other bowls we have been projected for:
Texas Bowl (Houston) vs. Rice Hawaii Bowl vs. Hawaii Poinsetta Bowl vs. BYU
As the article mentions, the Irish have chances at the following bowls:
Cotton Bowl
Gator Bowl
Sun Bowl
Now, bowl rules are screwy, but I think I have them listed in order of priority. That is, Cotton gets first dibs, then Gator and then Sun. Again, this I am not 100% sure of.
What I do know is this, the Cotton Bowl, under the current BCS/Bowl contracts, can replace an SEC team with the Irish within a four year span — and from what I understand, they have two more years (including this one) to do this. According to the article, a 7-5 Irish team would still hold the Cotton Bowl’s interest (assuming Syracuse win and USC loss), even though they (as well as the Gator Bowl) have never given a five loss team a bid.
In order to get a clearer picture of this possibility, I think it is important to consider just who the Irish would be replacing, and that means we have to look at the whole BCS and national title picture. Those bowls are as follows:
National Title – #1 BCS v #2 BCS Rose Bowl – Big Ten Champ v Pac 10 Champ Fiest Bowl – Big XII Champ v At Large* Orange Bowl – ACC Champ v At Large* Sugar Bowl – SEC Champ v At Large*
One of the At Large spots must be the Big East Champ.
Now from here you can either choose to go based on my predictions or trust the folks at ESPN with theirs. I have a feeling we will match up close; however, I am not going to go into specific teams in here, but focus on the conference and at large picture.
With Penn State falling last week, it is quite clear in my opinion that the BCS Championship will be Big XII v SEC Champ. The reason I don’t say Big XII champ is because I have a feeling that if Texas Tech loses either against OU (which I don’t think will happen) or in the Big XII Championship game (I don’t think that will happen either), there is a very good possibility that either Texas or OU will leapfrog Mizzou if they happen to win the conference title (which I don’t think they will do against any Big XII South team). So in my opinion you are looking at a title game that will have Texas/Texas Tech v Alabama/Florida.
Now, since in ND terms, we are most concerned with the SEC, we will focus on that picture. Whoever does not appear in the title game will quickly get scooped up by another bowl (most likely the Sugar Bowl to keep a SEC team in). From here the Cotton Bowl will then either pick the next best SEC team or replace them with ND. That team will most likely be LSU in my opinion, but you may also see Georgia sneak in there.
So that is the question that faces the Cotton Bowl. Do we bring in ND over LSU/Georgia? Most likely not. The only way ND has a chance at the Cotton Bowl is if they beat USC or LSU/Georgia slip out. ND will, at best, be just inside the top 25 and LSU and Georiga will be in the top 20. You just can’t snub them. As an Irish fan you don’t really want the snub. ND would be playing either OU or Mizzou, both of which I believe can beat the Irish.
So then, we go to our old friends in the Gator Bowl. What are our chances there? Quite frankly, very damned good. The Gator Bowl is: ACC v Big Eat/Big XII/ND. So who is ND competing against here? Well it will be either the runner up for the laughable Big East Conference or the next best Big XII team available (the one the Cotton Bowl doesn’t take basically). So the team pool we are looking at here competing for the ND bid is Mizzou/OK State/Pitt/WVU. Honestly, I can’t see any of these teams getting the nod over ND. The Gator Bowl has a good habit of picking ND even if they can slightly justify it. So I think this will be our most likely spot.
So what about the Sun Bowl? Well don’t expect us to go there unless disaster strikes and Syracuse pulls of a mircale. The Sun Bowl said they would love to take even a 6-6 Irish team. The Gator Bowl may want ND, but even they won’t be taking us then. While this game would likely be the easiest match up for ND, I don’t see it happening. You don’t want to see this happening. The Irish in the Sun Bowl means ND royally screws up this week. Forget the Sun Bowl exists.
Seriously, forget it exists.
So start making those travel plans for Flordia if you want to get a jump on things. Or if you will hold out hope for the huge upset against USC, have two flights ready to go. Because if the Irish pull that off, they will be in the Cotton Bowl garanteed.
