Now that the All Star break is upon us, I want to take a look and evaluate how well the club is performing thus far. Please note though, that I am “grading” on the performance of the Rangers in general and not grading in comparison to the expectations we started 2009 with. There is no doubt this team has performed leaps and bounds beyond anyone’s expectations at this point. However, if I am going to take an honest look at the club, I have to put that aside for the time being; otherwise, this post really becomes nothing more than a complete homer post.
Anyways, I will be grading the following categories: Starting Pitching, Bullpen, Offense, Defense, Mental Game, and Coaching. At the end, I will give an overall grade of the team, but please note that said final grade won’t be an overall exact average. Grading subjectively is fun.
On to the grades!
Starting Pitching: B+
There has been no doubt that the starting pitching has been one of the strongest aspects of this team. While their team ERA for starters may not be in the top half of MLB (4.47 ERA, ranked 16th), the Rangers starting staff still boasts quite a bit of impressive stats. They are ranked 10th in innings pitched (521.2) and tied for 3rd with 5 CG, echoing the Nolan Ryan mantra of making starters go deep into games. They are also ranked 10th in walks allowed (190 BB) and less free bases are always a good thing. But perhaps the most impressive stat is the 35 wins that the Rangers staff has put together (ranked 8th).
The Rangers obtain their high grade though for being able to put together these stats in a hitter’s park that is their home field. We’ve been told to never expect solid pitching because of this, yet here is a staff (and a very young one at that), that has been able to do it. The Rangers have also been able to fight through the injuries of their rotation as well, and still be able to hold these numbers together. Usually, if a starter went down for Texas, chaos would follow, but that hasn’t been the case this year.
The main thing keeping the Rangers from a higher mark is the lack of strikeouts thrown by the starters. While you can’t expect all 5 of your starters to be power pitchers and strike out machines, you surely don’t want to stay ranked 27th out of 30 teams in Ks (303 Ks). The top staffs in the Bigs will strike batters out a much more consistent basis to say the least.
Of course, improving some of the other stats listed above would also boost the grade as well.
Bullpen: B
This was probably one of the harder components of the team to grade. While the bullpen isn’t so hot in several statistical categories like ERA (4.09 ERA, 20th rank), BAA (Batting Average Against, .254, 19th rank), but something definitely needs to be said for the Rangers converting 24 of 31 saves (that rating is 2nd in the majors) as well as a MLB 11th best 1.37 WHIP.
Outside of O’Day, Wilson, and Francisco, the bullpen can get a bit scary — and even those pitchers have proven to be vulnerable throughout the season here and there.
But really the grade is there for this simple reason: Once you get to the bullpen, more often than not you feel like your lead will be safe. The blowups clearly don’t happen as much as the solid outings do. Plus, once you get to the 9th, you more or less feel like it is game over for the Rangers’ opponent.
Offense: C-
Now here is where I see some glaring issues. The power does seem to somewhat be there though with a SLG of .454 which is 2nd best behind the Yankees. Texas is tied for 1st with 132 HR and round out the top-10 in RBI with 409.
However, these numbers are also accompanied by some very disturbing ones: .255 BA (22th), .317 OBP (25th), 263 BB (27th), 690 Ks (3rd worst…thank you Davis and Salty), and probably the most disturbing is the BA with RISP (runners in scoring position) at .257 (21st). Ouch.
In short, if the Rangers have a power outage in a game, don’t expect too much in the way of producing runs. Those stats are just straight rally-killers to say the least. You can’t win by constantly relying on the long-ball to be your offense. It is as simple as that.
This also speaks to the larger issue of how the Rangers seem to be approaching the plate. Kinsler can’t seem to figure out what it is to be a leadoff hitter as his .250/.327/.816 and 20 HR are hardly the numbers you look for out of that slot. Maybe from your 5 or 6, but not the leadoff. Hamilton has also stuttered with a .243/.298/.726 and 6 HR — again, hardly what you are looking for out of him.
And who are the .300 hitters on the team right now? Michael Young. Yep that’s it.
This grade is more than fitting for a very below average offense with only its power pop saving it from being completely horrible.
Defense: B+
.984 is the current fielding percentage of the Rangers, which ranks 16th and their 52 errors is right in the middle of all of baseball. While these are fairly pedestrian numbers, the fact of the matter is that the Rangers have been able to quite literally steal away what used to be hits from opposing players.
Look no further than Elvis Andrus for the best example of this. The SS position for the Rangers have got more total chances than any other club in baseball (466) and Elvis is a large reason why (385 chances are his, only trailing Marco Scutaro). His range is much better than Young’s by far and his arm allows him to convert those tough plays/potential hits into outs — his SS league-leading 5.34 RF (range factor — [putouts+assists]/games played) also attests to this. Also, you have to consider the 58 double plays he has helped to turn (tied 3rd best).
Ian Kinsler is also a major piece of this defensive improvement, watching his errors drop to only 6 (he had 18 last year), and also leading the majors (tied with Aaron Hill) with 66 double play turns. His RF of 5.32 (4th best among all 2B), sure doesn’t hurt either. He also happens to lead all 2B in total chances with 453.
The improved and solid defense is a large part of the reason why the pitching has been so good. The two more often than not will always go hand-in-hand, especially if your staff is not striking out a whole lot of batters.
Baserunning: A
73 SB, with a success rating of 84% (tops in the majors). Baserunning mistakes have also been at a minimum as well. You really can’t ask for much more than this. Unlike last year, the Rangers are not running themselves out of innings and they’ve been able to do this while being far more aggressive on the bases.
Mental Game: C+
Like Yogi said: “Baseball is 80% mental, and the other half is physical.” This rating of course is completely subjective, but in my opinion has a large impact on how a team preforms.
Overall, the Rangers have been decent with the mental game. Stupid baserunning mistakes are way down from last year and that has been the biggest source of improvement; however, there are still a lot of mental blowups and short-comings that have plagued this season.
Padilla started the “wtf are you thinking!?” moments with his complete meltdown against the Yankees. Never has it been more obvious that a pitcher had simply given up and was just waiting to be taken out of the game…and then plunking Teixeira twice for the hell of it was just baffling. Although since that game, he has been much more like an actual #2 starter…seems the “we’ll put your tail on waivers without blinking” message was received rather well.
Chris Davis was another problem this season. You don’t just strike out over 100 times in less than half a season because your swing is bad. He clearly got in his own head during his strikeout fest. Somewhere along the line you have to make the adjustments that are needed and not press. If his swing was really that bad, he wouldn’t have made it past AA ball.
Hamilton even feel victim to the same issue, just in a different way. He saw his numbers decline, and started pressing to get them up. So what does he do? Swings at the first pitch he sees nearly every single time. Granted, this has gotten better since he has arrived back from the DL, but he had a very long stretch of swinging at the first pitch more than 70% of the time. And I have just a slight feeling you don’t throw an easy to hit pitch to the #3 slot over 70% of the time on the first pitch.
Ian Kinsler as mentioned before has had several issues figuring out how to hit like a leadoff man. He continuously swings for the fences and that just makes no sense to me at all. Also, although the baserunning mistakes have been few and far between, the culprit more often than not has been Ian.
There have been several positives though, and the majority of them have been the poise of most of the young guns that have been thrown into the fire this season. Folks like Holland, Hunter, and Andrus have been doing a fantastic job thus far in the season.
Overall though, there is room to improve.
Coaching: B
When positive things happen to the club, you have to give the manager a lot of credit. Washington has done a solid job with the Rangers and to not give him said credit would be simply wrong. However, he has still had many moments were I believe he has left some pitchers in too long (namely Milwood), and pulled other people far too fast (namely Holland). You can’t really put too much of a blame on him for the losses the club has had though. Overall the ratio of dumb decisions compared to really good ones have been quite solid.
Mike Maddox also deserves loads of credit for transforming this pitching staff to looking like…well an actual pitching staff. He is probably the best off-season transaction this team has had in years.
And we get to Rudy Jaramillo…
Now I really can’t wrap my head around this guy. He is lauded by pretty much all of baseball as one of the best hitting coaches ever, but within the past couple of years I watch Ranger batter after Ranger batter take horrible approaches to the plate. The trend of hitting purely for power and not to the situation is also very disturbing. While you can blame a lot on the hitter, if these problems come up season after season, you have to start pointing the finger at the man in charge of coaching the swings as well.
Frankly, the coaching would be an easy “A” if it weren’t for the perplexing performance of the Rangers’ hitting.
Overall: B-
The Rangers, while definitely performing very well in several aspects of the game, still have a lot of work to do, namely in the hitting and mental game. This team definitely has what it takes to compete with the upper-tier of MLB; however, to say they are on the level of the elite is pressing it. They will definitely be able to make a lot of noise in the West at this rate and, if the offense makes some solid strides (with the pitching holding of course) might even be able to make a post-season appearance.
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Some other notes to close:
Halladay I don’t think will be traded. According to St. Louis beat writer Joe Strauss (via his Twitter):
Asked about the price tag for Halladay, a club source said: “Give Ricciardi [ED: GM of the Blue Jays] all our minor-league rosters and let him circle any 5 names.”
Yeah…pass on that. I’m pretty sure most of baseball will feel the same.
For those so sure that we needed to call Smoak up to replace Chris Davis, here are their AAA numbers so far:
Justin Smoak: 26 AB, .115/.281/.512, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 6 K
Chris Davis: 23 AB, .348/.407/1.060, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 6 K
Which do you think is more major league ready? This is why you don’t make crazy roster moves (especially ones that affect your 40-man roster) for someone that is only doing well in AA. Smoak still has a long way to go before he is considered ready for a call-up.
Davis though is looking like he might just be getting some of his confidence back. Hopefully this pace can keep up so he can find his way back into the Rangers lineup and be a solid contributor once again. Having his glove back at 1B would be a nice addition as well.
First off, let me start off by thanking Kevin Milwood for having the worst start of 2009 right after I decide to rant about him getting passed over in the All Star game. Giving up 9 runs sure showed everyone!
For the record, I still believe Milwood should’ve been taken over Wakefield. One bad start does not destruct what he has put together all season.
Next, I want to take a quick moment to address the Roy Halladay “rumor” that seems to be floating about. Fox sports mentions the Rangers as a “possibility”…well let me use his words:
Here’s an early handicap of the Halladay sweepstakes. Warning! While I’m basing this list on some initial conversations with major-league executives, it is largely speculative. To my knowledge, none of the names mentioned below have even been discussed yet.…
Rangers. Oh, they’ve got the pieces; their farm system is the best in baseball, according to Baseball America.
Problem is, the Rangers’ payroll flexibility is extremely limited because of the financial troubles of owner Tom Hicks. And pitchers do not waive no-trade clauses to work at the hitter-friendly Ballpark at Arlington.
Somehow this little blurb gets a mention on the Dallas Morning News Ranger’s blog and then a friend emails me the story as he read it from another baseball blog.
The internet is fun.
I’m shocked this even has the wheels (if you even want to say that) that it does right now. I can’t see this happening at all. Such a move would definitely require at least one of our huge prospects being shipped over to Canada (I’m thinking names like Smoak, Holland, Feliz, Beavan). This is reminding me of when we sent over Chris Young and Adrian Gonzalez over to the Padres — you know that trade where we now have nothing on our end from that deal.
There is too much risk and not enough reward for the Rangers here. Best case senario here is that Halladay helps get us into the playoffs and we make a semi-decent run. There is no doubt though, that even in the best case, this team is not championship caliber. Making a move for a big arm like Halladay really doesn’t do anything more than delay the inevitable.
Plus you have to remember that Hallady is going to cost big. Sure it is a “deal” in a sense as you have to pay a prorated $14 million followed by $15 million in 2010, but this team is already having enough financial trouble as it is. Keep in mind we are still wanting to ink our two big draft picks, and they are going to be asking for top-dollar (which is the reason other teams passed on them). On top of that, the Rangers are still wanting to make sure they can work out a new contract with Hamilton and they will still likely try to sign Ben Sheets when he is finally healthy as well. The numbers just don’t add up.
Basically, you’d be risking the teams health in both prospects and payroll for more than just the 1.5 years Halladay would be contracted as a Ranger. And for what payoff? Hallady is going to make the Rangers a championship contender? I don’t think so. This team isn’t a “one player away” club by any means. This team becomes a contender when the young guns finally develop.
Finally, you have that whole no-trade clause Halladay would need to wave to go to the friendly hitting confines of the Ballpark in Arlington — I’m sure he’d also love the climate change on top of that.
In short (too late I know), don’t count on this.
Before I finish up here for the day, I want to comment a bit on the moves at first base the Rangers have done over the Fourth of July weekend. First, Justin Smoak was promoted to AAA and then a day later, Chris Davis was recalled to AAA.
Both moves aren’t too shocking, but really I feel this is the best possible situation for the two of them. Smoak needs to prove he can preform at the next level and Davis needs to get his head right once again. With both of them being on the same roster, they should (hopefully) be able to push each other. I would have a feeling that they will both be playing almost daily with one at 1B and one at DH.
Now for everyone thinking that it is only a matter of time before Smoak is called up to the big leagues, once again, tap the brakes on that. Smoak is still not on the 40-man roster so he cannot be called up unless the Rangers wave someone or they place someone on the 60-day DL to make room for Smoak.
Also, I want everyone to remember what happened just one year ago. The Rangers promoted a hot-shot first baseman to AAA Oklahoma as he was destroying AA pitching. A few weeks later, he was called up to the major leagues and was hailed as the “1B of the future.” Now, everyone thinks he is worthless trash as he was on pace to crush the MLB strikeout and batting a sub-200 for the season.
It’s funny how quickly Davis’ fortune changed from this time last year to now. Don’t automatically think that Smoak is going to come in as our savior at first base or that Davis is done. Baseball is all about players and teams making adjustments over long periods of time (read: years not months).
Nothing is set in stone yet, so don’t continue to try to read tea leaves on how things will be. As with the Halladay rumors, just take everything in stride. The All Star break is just around the corner and the Rangers are just one game out of first as of today and there is no one that thought they would be at this point.
Enjoy it.
I’m just going to leave this little stat comparison here:
Milwood: 8-5, 2.80 ERA, 119 IP, 37 ER, 1.24 WHIP
Wakefield: 10-3, 4.30 ERA, 102.2 IP, 49 ER, 1.35 WHIP
So let me get this straight…the 5th best ERA in the AL (done in what has always been known as a hitter’s park by the way) backed by a workhorse load of the 3rd most IP in the AL, gets snubbed for the All Star pitching staff for Wakefield?
Seriously?!
I want to know what Joe Maddon is smoking here. If this game supposedly “matters” why in the hell are you selecting a pitcher that gives up more runs in less innings pitched?
I don’t even want to hear about Wakefield having 10 wins. If that’s the criteria we are going to use why isn’t Kevin Slowey on the roster? Oh I donno maybe his 4.86 ERA has something to do with it, although the funny part about Slowey is that he’s given up the same amount of earned runs as Wakefield (49), albeit pitching 12 less innings.
Milwood should be rewarded for the season he is having and not get the shaft because he’s been a hard luck loser a few too many times. I thought the reason the manager got to set the rotation and not the fans was so that things like this don’t happen — after all, “baseball fans” voted for Josh Hamilton to start the game even though he has played about as much as Manny and with worse numbers.
It’s moments like this that really make me want to see MLB drop the whole stupid “this game matters” crap. The original purpose was to increase interest in the game and to get people to actually route for their own league a little bit more.
Now I’m going to be watching the game hoping Wakefield gets lit up like a Christmas tree. If that happens and the AL loses by 10 because of it, I won’t care.
Figured it would be good to toss in another quick Rangers post before I run out of town with no real internet access for a week.
Well, thank God the Astros came into town. The Angels have put together a rather impressive 6 game winning streak, and with the Rangers reeling after two tough series against the Blue Jays and Dodgers, they definitely to win this next series.
Although fun fact, this is the first series in about a month, I believe, that the Rangers have actually faced the possibility of losing the lead in the AL West. Despite that though, the Rangers will again see their lead hold in the West as they have taken the first two games from the Astros, clinching the oh so “important” Sliver Boot for the “Lone Star” Series that no one really gives two craps about.
Just to clarify though, I don’t hate inter-league play in the least. It is fun to get to see teams that you don’t often get the chance to as a fan. I just think MLB tried a little too hard on the idea forcing the “inter-state rivalries” that don’t really exist. Even our president Nolan Ryan owns a minor league team in the Astros system, so I highly doubt he had a huge party when the Boot was clinched.
Anyways, back to actual Rangers substance.
Let’s start with Mr. Davis once again, as it seems to continue to be something talked about non-stop across talk radio and in post game shows. Calls for Justin Smoak to be promoted still continue as well (even though these same fans probably don’t realize he just came of the 7-day DL for Frisco). Yes, I know he is killing rallies, and yes, he still is striking out a ton (41 in his last 82 ABs…every other at bat…big ouch…). However, he isn’t the only one.
If we are going to start throwing darts at the Rangers’ offense, let’s hit all the targets while we are at it. In reality, thanks to Davis’ Mendoza-line production the following as probably gone unnoticed by fans — take a look at the stats over the past 30 days for these Rangers:
Salty: .219/.275/.645, 73 AB, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 34 K
Young: .276/.325/.706, 105 AB, 1 HR, 8 RBI
Kinsler: .210/.294/.723, 105 AB, 6 HR, 15 RBI
Of course Davis is no better really: .159/.216/.509, 82 AB, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 41 K
And Jones has crashed back to reality: .184/.212/.620, 49 AB, 3 HR, 6 RBI
Point is though, we can spread these bullets around.
Davis is right where he belongs in the lineup, at the bottom. Sure you don’t want a power position having an OBPS at .509 over 30 days by any means, but in the same vein we sure as hell should have a leadoff hitter with a sub .300 OBP, and a friggin’ .210 AVG over the same stretch! On top of that, I can’t even remember the last time Young went sub-.300 over a month.
Right below Davis, Salty is having strikeout issues of his own as highlighted above. I know a K every 2 AB for Davis is not good, but then again neither is a K for every 2.14 AB for Salty over the past month; however, I don’t seem to hear the screaming for Salty to be benched, even though we have Talor Teagarden on the Rangers’ Bench, whom, in the past 30 days, has 20 AB in which he has gone .300/.333/.783 with 5 RBI and only 6 K. So why not make that swap? Where is all the screaming for Salty’s head?
While fans may not like to admit it, the excuses they’d likely give are the exact same as the ones that should be given for Davis. Teagarden is too young, don’t throw him into the fire yet, let him ease into it, etc. How we are tossing these same reasons aside for a AA player that isn’t even on the 40-man roster (and yes, I mean Smoak) is beyond me.
Now, I’m not excusing Davis’ performance because it is only one thing right now: piss poor. But his glove is just as valuable in the lineup as Salty’s, and last I checked, the whole offense is struggling and the wins we have gotten have been via pitching and defense. And no, 6 and 5 run performances against the Astros does not count as the offense “turning it around” at the moment.
Look at Davis for what he is right now, a solid glove that is batting horribly and thus sits at the bottom of the order. Just as Salty has been solid behind the dish; however, batting just as bad — and he sits just behind Davis in the order.
The thing is, we all know the entire Rangers lineup can, and very likely will, hit better. We’ve seen the potential that Davis has. We know Young and Kinsler are solid offensive threats. However, they need to obviously work things out.
Despite all that, look at the big picture: 2 games ahead of the Angels in the West, above .500 baseball, and oh, by the way, we weren’t supposed to see this kind of ball until 2010. Also we haven’t seen this kind of baseball ever. I don’t mean the wins, but the way they are winning. You never came into Texas telling your team that you have to make your ABs count and manufacture runs — no you told them, the Rangers’ pitching staff is a joke and the Ballpark in Arlington is a launching pad for home runs and the Ragners’ can hope to do is out-slug you. That isn’t the case now, the Rangers, more often than not, will throw solid starting pitching at you along with stellar defense. If you happen to blow us out now, you caught one of our guys on a really bad start, it hasn’t happened much at all this season.
Enjoy the ride for what it is, and let’s see if people like Davis can’t pull it together before season’s end. If not, bring up Smoak next season and let him take a hack at it. There is just no sense in making a hasty roster move that will likely cost you a player (unless, God forbid, someone else finds a home on the 60 day DL). If that’s the reason we miss the playoffs, I personally could care less as it isn’t like this team is going to be deconstructed completely next season.
To close, some observations on our young pitchers. I was actually able to make my way out to the Temple this season and I got to see Holland pitch…and I got to see what he is like when he has nothing. He struggled mightily. He’s command was erratic to say the least and wasn’t striking people out as he normally was as well. Facing the hottest team in the majors (L.A. Dodgers) didn’t help either. However, he still gutted it out, went 5 innings, and kept the Rangers in the ball game. It was far from spectacular, but you can’t ask for anything more than that when you don’t have anything resembling your best stuff.
Neftali Feliz is still trucking along in AAA. Via the Newberg Report:
Neftali Feliz’s walk rate and innings per start, by month:
April: 19%, 3.7
May: 11%, 4.7
June: 1.5%, 5.8That’s what I call correlation (and causation)! Feliz didn’t issue a free pass and struck out three in six innings. Unfortunately, he also allowed eight hits, and four would score. Feliz has been pretty ordinary, statistically speaking, as he fine tunes his fastball command and develops his offspeed stuff.
I would say it is safe to wager that Feliz will be called up come September (at the latest, it might be sooner) and will find a role in the bullpen. Next year, I would bet he lands as the 4 or 5 starter in the rotation. My biggest concern with him (as it usually is for any young pitcher) is the control, BB/inning, K/BB ratio, etc. It takes time to learn how to get major league hitters out (see Holland and his starts) and really, that just takes experience and time. However, ensuring that you don’t give hitters free bases is a whole other matter.
Needless to say, with the walks continuing to take a nose-dive, his time is most definitely coming.
As far as Blake Beavan goes, he got his first start in AA the other day — via the Newberg Report once again:
Blake Beavan offered some good with some bad in his AA debut. In 5.1 innings and 93 pitches, he struck out six and walked none, but he allowed six runs (five earned) on eight hits. Beavan actually gave up only one hit with runners in scoring position. Other runs scored on a wild pitch, an error, a groundout, and a double of reliever Thomas Diamond.
Again, take a look at the control here. No free passes, and an impressive 6 Ks to boot. The hits will happen, just as they are for Feliz and it will likely take a year or two for Beavan to figure things out at the AA level as well as the AAA level (which I think he will land next season, possibly with a 40-man spot and a spring training invite as well).
Again, next time you want to rage on Davis, Salty or the Ranger bats in general. Take a step back, look at the big picture.
The future is bright and enjoy this current ride we are on.
First off, I want to give a quick plug to where I get the majority of the information that will be in this post. There is no way that I’d be able to keep track of the Rangers draft as well as our minor league prospects if it weren’t for the Newberg Report. If you consider yourself a die-hard or even slightly serious Rangers fan, I would highly suggest signing your e-mail up for these daily reports. You’ll get updates from the minor leagues as well as some Ranger insights from Jamey Newberg. Jamey is the ultimate Rangers homer as well and he will find reasons to try to keep you positive about the club.
Anyways onto the reasons for this post. There has been a lot of news from the Rangers since my last post, some of which made me feel like I did a nice solid jinx on the whole team.
An hour or two after my last post, the Rangers extended the contract of skipper Ron Washington. So I thought, “Hey, I finally stop being lazy and write a post and then we get some great news out of Arlington, go me!” Well, that thought lasted all of five minutes because in the very same press conference the team announced that Josh Hamilton will need surgery on what has been officially diagnosed as a sports hernia, and then announced that Brandon McCarthy is heading to the DL yet again, this time with a stress fracture in his throwing shoulder. If that news wasn’t enough, I then proceeded to watch the Rangers drop two games in a row.
Yeah, go me right?
Thankfully though, the Rangers snapped out of their two game skid behind a gem from Kevin Millwood, who went 7.2 giving up only 5 hits and 0 runs. He may have only stuck out one, but he also did not walk anybody. You can’t ask for much more out of your ace than that, especially when your struggling offense can only get you a single run the entire game.
Darren O’Day and C.J. Wilson followed to close out the game, giving O’Day his 6th hold and C.J. his 6th save. You’ll notice there is no mention of Frankie Fransico who is still “day-to-day” and was unavailable for the entire Toronto series. The Rangers have seemed hopeful he won’t need another DL stint; however, considering he has been unavailable for quite a while now it isn’t too positive though to say the least.
So with that win, I fell safe enough to come out of blog hiding and hoping that I don’t further jinx this team in their upcoming series with the L.A. Dodgers who currently hold the best record in baseball.
Keyword = hoping.
The majority of Rangers news though has been off the field as they have been quite busy with the draft, a big minor league promotion and making a rather interesting free agent signing. While it is hard to get too overly excited about draft picks in baseball, as most of the time you don’t see them crack the big league roster for a few years, it does seem that the Rangers made two solid picks in their first two rounds, grabbing two top pitching prospects in Matt Purke and Tanner Scheppers.
Some info on Purke (via the Newberg Report):
As a sophomore at Klein (which also produced big leaguers David Murphy, Josh Barfield, and Chris George), Purke went 5-3, 1.43 in 49 innings, punching out 66 hitters as he scattered 38 hits and 16 walks. As a junior, he started the season firing two straight no-hitters, finishing the year with a 12-1, 0.37 record, fanning 147 in 76.2 innings and giving up 18 hits and 17 walks. As a senior, he posted a 4-2, 1.18 mark, setting 91 hitters down on strikes in 47.1 innings while permitting only 18 hits and seven walks. The reason for the relatively low inning count in 2009, according to Purke, was not any physical issue but instead the result of a number of Bearcat games getting rained out early in the spring. Good.
Purke has extensive experience on a big stage, having pitched for Team USA during the summers preceding his sophomore, junior, and senior years. He made six appearances in those three seasons (1-1, 3.68), striking out 27 and issuing six walks in 22 innings, including a complete-game, four-hit shutout over Mexico last summer (11 strikeouts, no walks). He also pitched a scoreless inning last summer in the Aflac All-American Game at Dodger Stadium. Purke has been exposed to a high level of competition and succeeded, and the Rangers love his makeup and competitiveness.
And some info on Scheppers:
Scheppers’s overpowering fastball, which sits in the mid-90s and touches 98 with life (reportedly lighting the gun up once at 101 in his final Saints start before the draft), was considered second only to Strasburg in this year’s draft class. He mixes in a power curve and a change, and is mechanically sound (perhaps more so than Strasburg). A former shortstop who didn’t begin pitching until his high school senior season (registering 93 on the radar gun and showing enough to prompt Baltimore to use its 29th-round draft pick on him in 2005), he’s athletic with a classic pitcher’s build.
In his breakout junior year at Fresno State in 2008, Scheppers went 8-2, 2.93 with a save in 11 starts and one relief appearance, permitting 54 hits (.202 opponents’ average) and 34 walks in 70.2 innings while setting 109 down on strikes. Four hitters took him deep.
Color me excited. Considering the amount of solid, young arms we already have in the farm, adding these two would be simply amazing.
Now the big question in the MLB draft is always, “well can you sign these guys?” Unlike the NFL or NBA draft, the kids you end up signing there, while they come with a hefty price tag at times, will end up on your pro roster more or less immediately. It is a much quicker return on your money than baseball, in which you can pay millions and then possibly see your pick never make it out of the minors. A lot of teams aren’t willing to pony up the $4-6 million that some of these kids end up asking for and that is the reason why.
However, you can say what you want about the Rangers not being willing to spend big on free agents as of late, but John Daniels and Nolan Ryan have made it abundantly clear that if they are going to spend, they will be more willing to do it in a draft. Just take a look at the Justin Smoak situation from last season. Many teams passed on him simply because they didn’t want to spend the money to sign him and he ended up falling square into the Rangers’ lap. While it took a while for the deal to get done, the Rangers did indeed get it done, and now Smoak is making huge noise in AA right now. “Steal” doesn’t even begin describe this situation.
So the Rangers once again found themselves in the spot of being able to select two players whom people are too scared to try and sign. Purke scared teams off because of the money he wanted to command in order for him to forgo college and Scheppers because of an injury to his arm he suffered last year. And so far, news is nothing but positive in the signablity of these guys. While it may go down to the wire, there is little doubt from all that I’ve been reading that the Rangers will be able to close the deal and buff up their already top-ranked farm system.
Needless to say the future looks even brighter.
Also, one final quick-hit on the draft, the Rangers took Ruben Sierra as one of their final picks…yes that would be the son of former Rangers’ all-star RF Ruben Sierra. I grew up watching his dad, so that was surreal to see to say the least.
Following along with draft news, the Rangers have promoted their first round draft pick in 2007, P Blake Beavan, to AA Frisco. Beavan has spent this past season in High-A Bakersfield, and has put together what seems to be a pretty solid season. Nearly every start he had this year, he was listed as one of the stars in the Newberg Farm report.
This is great news for the Rangers on several counts. First off, he will join the first round pick of 2008, Justin Smoak in AA, so it seems the Rangers scouts are indeed doing a solid job as these two haven’t been gigantic busts. Second, there were huge concerns with Beavan’s mechanics as he entered the Rangers’ farm system. He struggled a bit last year with these changes; however, he has bounced back quite quickly it seems with the promotion. Finally, it is great news for the future of the rotation. While nothing is set in stone yet, if Beavan continues this progress, we could very well see a rotation containing very solid young arms. How does a rotation of Feldman, Harrison, Holland, Feliz, and Beavan sound in say 2011 or 2012?
The Rangers also added another arm to their minor league system…Orlando “El Duque” Hernandez. While I am completely ready to file this in the “wtf are you doing Texas?” category, I can’t say the move is completely insane. First off, this isn’t a 40-man signing, so we aren’t having to get rid of anyone as of yet. Secondly, what is it going to hurt the Rangers if he fizzles out in AAA? If he happens to bring back a little bit of his old magic back, it would definitely be a huge payoff for the Rangers down the stretch this season.
Although it still concerns me slightly that the Rangers don’t even know his exact age. I’m not even kidding on this, I’ve been hearing reports on the radio the past couple days saying he “may be between 39-44 years old.”
I’d like to close with some Chris Davis/Justin Smoak talk once again, as it seems that the rumors are picking up steam, even in the world of fantasy baseball:
ProspectingJustin Smoak, Tex, 1B – While Smoak currently resides on the seven-day disabled list (oblique) for Double-A Frisco, I think he’s a pertinent topic in this forum, nonetheless. Rangers first baseman Chris Davis(notes) has managed to cloud every memory of his dynamic ’08 debut in a feverish desire to provide air conditioning for the fans in attendance at Rangers games – his 88 strikeouts puts him on a season pace of 255, which would shatter the major league record set a year ago by Mark Reynolds(notes) (205). Davis also has the second-lowest BB/K ratio in the league (0.14), is hitting at the Mendoza Line (.202) and has gone homerless in his past 12 games. This brings us back to Smoak, a former high school teammate of Matt Wieters(notes) who was Texas’ top draft choice a year ago. Baseball America draws comparisons with Mark Teixeira(notes) because he’s a switch hitter with a nice blend of power and patience. Speaking of Baseball America, one of their analysts, Jim Callis, recently had this to say about the possibility of Smoak seeing time in Arlington this season: “If you’d have asked me this at the beginning of the year as a hypothetical question, I’d have said it wouldn’t matter because there was no reason not to let Davis work through his struggles, and no reason to rush Smoak. But with the Rangers contending, they’re going to have to look seriously at calling up Smoak if things don’t change by the All-Star break. Smoak is tough enough to handle the promotion, and while ideally you’d like to give him more minor league ABs, the Rangers can’t take a sub-.700 OPS at first base when they’re trying to win.” The 22-year-old Smoak would have immediate cachet in mixed leagues if/when he arrives in Texas.
Yes, Davis is still having some issues, but I still just can’t see this having too much of a chance right now. Ironically, Davis reached base every single AB and did not strike out, and actually doubled in the game. He is far from tearing up the league, but these short bursts of “hey, he isn’t completely screwing up now!” is going to keep him on the MLB roster. Moving Smoak up would be an act of desperation more than anything, and even if it looks as if Davis shouldn’t be on the MLB roster, he will get moved down to AAA to work and Blalock or Jones will likely take his spot, and possibly have someone like Max Ramirez called up, not Smoak. I can’t see Smoak making a crack at the Rangers roster until next season at the earliest.
Final Note: Yeah, I know I lied, but as I was finishing this post, I saw the Rangers have signed one of their draft picks. Ruben Sierra is now the first of the Rangers 2009 draft class to be signed, sealed and delivered. Hopefully, the rest of our signings will be this easy!
I find myself in the month of June still shockingly optimistic about baseball for the first time in years. At the time of this entry, the Rangers hold a 4.5 lead over the Angels in the AL West and are tied with the New York Yankees for the best record in the American League; in fact, only two teams in all of Major League Baseball have a better record: last year’s World Champs, the Philadelphia Phillies (Rangers are 0.5 GB), and the L.A. Dodgers (Rangers are well behind). This is a situation I am not used to seeing.
Not only that, this streak of solid baseball has been anchored by solid pitching and defense. If anything, the offense has been the most suspect this season. Millwood finally looks like an ace this season boasting a 2.96 ERA (yes a Ranger pitcher with a sub-3.00 ERA), 1.26 WHIP, 1.78 K/BB ratio, and 2 CG as well. Needless to say his 5-4 record has not done him justice at all.
Even young pitchers like Harrison (whom is currently on the DL though) and McCarhty have notched CG shutouts this season as well as put together some solid stats. The Nolan Ryan mantra of getting the starters in better shape and going deep into games is ringing loud and clear. The main concern of course, is how long will this be able to last? The dog days of summer are nearly upon the Ballpark and that will be the true test too see just how much longer the Ranger arms will last.
Rookie Derek Holland has also cracked this rotation as well, and it should be noted that it seems the Rangers are being very cautious with his arm. Thankfully it seems that the Nolan Ryan school of thought is leaned far more heavily on the veterans like Millwood than young kids like Holland. While his stats are far from impressive right now, one thing that does jump out is just how often he is striking batters out. Not only is his K/BB ratio an amazing 2.4, his K/9 is 6.82 — a number that is light years ahead of any other Ranger starter. He definitely has the stuff, but right now he’ll have to take a few lumps on the head while learning to pitch in the bigs. The future definitely looks bright for this kid.
The bullpen, while not incredibly deep, has been solid as well. C.J. Wilson seems to be turning things around, but the two that stand out the most right now is early season pickup Darren O’Day and closer Frank Francisco. In 15 innings of work, O’Day has given up only 8 hits and 2 runs, leading to a 1.20 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP. Francisco has been perfect converting all 12 of his save opportunities and has allowed only one run all season in his 19.2 innings of work. Right now the only concern for him though is his health as he seems to be put onto the shelf far too often.
Even though the offense has been the “worst” part of this team, there are some definite standouts thus far.
Ian Kinsler is currently hitting .274/.357/.905 (AVG/OBP/OBPS) with 15 HR and 44 RBI and has been the catalyst for the Rangers offense most of the season. Nelson Cruz has seemed to shake off the “AAAA” label hitting .292/.356/.969 with 17 HR and 42 RBI. Even Andruw Jones has shocked pretty much everyone (including myself) going a respectable .272/.400/.933 with 5 HR and 15 RBI, making him a solid contributor, and dare I say it, a solid gamble by the Rangers.
As far as defense goes, I would wager the Rangers have the best infield in all of MLB. Ian Kinsler has become more solid at 2B, and Davis has proven to be an amazing defensive 1B; however, the biggest change is on the left side of the infield. Rookie Elvis Andrus is proving to be a stud. He has made plays that I have seen no Ranger ever make at SS. The call to promote him to the bigs has been a genius move, and sliding Michael Young to 3B has make the left side of the infield simply amazing. It is no coincidence that with this improved defense, the pitching has also gotten a lot better as well. Pitchers are watching more hits get stolen from the opposition, giving them far more confidence in pitching to contact — this is further exemplified by the fact that the Rangers are dead last as a pitching staff in Ks, yet still having solid pitching all season.
While on the subject of Elvis Andrus, it should be noted that he has been an offensive force as well this season. He has hit .275/.326/.732 with 3 HR, 12 RBI, and 9 SB. Rookie of the year honors are definitely within his grasp.
If there is any “hot topic” thus far, it has been the bat of Chris Davis. Davis thus far has only put together .202/.326/.685, albeit with 12 HR and 27 RBI. The biggest number though is his strikeouts as he easily leads all of MLB with 84 (that would be a strikeout every 2.23 AB, ouch). Leading of course to people calling for his removal from the lineup as he has become the ultimate all-or-nothing batter.
Personally, I am still with Wash in letting Davis have more time at the dish to fix his issues (and in this last road trip, things did indeed look a lot better). I’m not a big fan of our other 1B options. Blalock and Jones can play at 1B, but Davis easily has the better glove.
But what about Justin Smoak? He seems to be the “easy” choice to replace Davis. I mean why not, he is going an absurd .325/.444/.947 with 6 HR and 25 RBI, so why not toss him in? Well first off, people need to tap the breaks. He is doing this in AA. The difference between AA pitching and MLB pitching is night and day. Hell, even AAA pitching is a completely different animal than what he is facing.
Also, people need to realize that Smoak isn’t even on the 40-man roster right now. For those that don’t understand what I just said, this means that Smoak can’t even be called up into the bigs right now, as you can only do that for guys that are on your 40-man roster. During the season, making a move on that roster isn’t exactly as simple as swapping people. In order to make room on the 40-man roster, you have to outright release a player, and I don’t think the Rangers are going to be willing to do that on a gamble from someone that is doing well in just AA.
Basically, it makes far more sense to allow for Davis to try to work through his issues. As I said before, there have been signs of improvement. With him in the lineup, you still have a solid glove as well, so it isn’t like he is single-handedly crippling the Rangers. However, I am sure if he continues to slide downward during the month of June, he could find himself in AAA once again and Blalock/Jones will cover 1B.
The long of the short of it though is that everyone needs to realize just what is happening right now and that is the Rangers are a year ahead of themselves. 2010 was the projected year to make a run for the AL West and now the Rangers have a very comfortable lead. Think about this, for the last few series, the Rangers have entered knowing that even if they get swept and the Angels sweep their series, they will still be in first. That is simply awesome.
There is still an abundance of young talent in the farm system as well as the current roster. Cruz is going to be a force, Andrus is looking like a stud right now, Murphy’s bat is coming around, and Holland could just be an ace-in-waiting. And that isn’t even taking into account you still have talent like Neftali Feliz and Justin Smoak waiting in the wings for seasons to come.
This is the start of something big. For the first time in ages, the Rangers finally have things set up right and we will definitely have many more seasons of solid baseball in Texas to come.