As always, if you want to play along and see the numbers I’m referencing, you can do that here.

Offense

Let’s the the obvious out of the way: the offense was abysmal.  We didn’t get a TD until the fourth quarter and the game was pretty much over.  We only had five plays in the red zone total.  We couldn’t convert a third down to save our lives as well (4-13, 30.77%).

Just awful.

As far as play calling balance goes, Notre Dame set a season high in pass play percentage at 70.59%.  Unlike the last two weeks in which the Irish were able to squeeze more plays in the fast-paced Kelly offense, the Irish were only able to run 68 plays as opposed to 76 and 81 the two week prior.  The amount of plays is more along the lines of what we ran against Purdue (62) and in that game the Irish had a 53.23% run play percentage.

Granted, we were playing catch up for most of the game; however, we weren’t too far out of reach for well over a half.  And that fact still doesn’t take away the horrifying fact that rushing plays feel for the fourth consecutive week to 20 plays (three weeks prior: 33, 31, and 25).  Even more disheartening was the yards per rush feel again to an abysmal 1.91 for 44 total.

Our rushing attack is on life support and, in this game, we became without a shadow of a doubt a one dimensional team.

Crist’s passing percentage this week was another disappointing effort at only 57.78% which was just slightly lower than last week.  The 73.08% completion rate against Purdue seems like a distant memory right now.

A piss poor rushing attack and a shaky passing game equals disaster.  This is by far the best defense that ND has faced to date, but you would still hope for the numbers to look even just a little bit better than this.

I don’t doubt the potency of this offense.  Crist being a little more accurate alone will do wonders.  A bit of help from the rushing game sure wouldn’t hurt either though.

Defense

I think each time I run the numbers after a game, I continue to be surprised at how well the defense did all things considered.

Stanford scored 17 points off of turnovers.  7 of those, the defense couldn’t do a damned thing about as it came on an INT return by Stanford.  3 came from a Dayne Crist fumble in which Stanford started that drive on the ND 15 and was the only three and out for the defense all game.  The remaining 7 came off the ND failed fourth down conversion and the defense again had a short field as the drive started on the ND 49.

Stanford also had one more drive start in plus position after the failed ND onside kick, which resulted in a field goal.  Toss on those 3 points and you have a grand total of 20 points scored on a defense that was absolutely put into a hole.

Even more sickening is the fact that the Irish defense was able to force two Stanford turnovers from a QB that doesn’t throw picks and the offense got a big ‘ol goose egg in return.  The only points scored off a turnover came from a gift that Stanford’s punt returner coughed up to us at the start of the game.

The defense was far from phenomenal, don’t get me wrong, but again, they probably played well enough to win and kept the Irish in this game for far longer than they should have been.  They gave up 404 yards, which while not great is the least amount of yards given up to an opponent in a loss.

Stanford attacked ND primarily on the ground and kept it there to nurse the lead late, creating a total run percentage of 57.89%.  The defense had their best performance against the run since Purdue giving up only 3.77 yards/carry, which is nearly a full yard improvement from last week against the Spartans.

While all this is a thin silver lining in a horrid loss, there is one spot in which the defense can absolutely not be forgiven and that is on third down.  Stanford converted 11 of their 16 third down attempts (68.75%) which damn near doubles their second “worst” performance in this category which was against Michigan State at 35.29%.

Far too many drives were kept alive longer than they should’ve been.  Considering ND’s offensive woes, I doubt this would’ve changed the game drastically at all; however, this definitely needs to be a one game hiccup that goes away because a third down conversion rate that high is flat out unacceptable.

Um…Maybe This Does Mean Something…

Remember last week how I said ND has lost two games in a row that lasted 3 hours and 37 minutes?  And the only win against Purdue had a game time of 3 hours and 1 minute?

Game time against Stanford: 3 hours 35 minutes.

I’m not saying it’s a trend, but I will say this: if ND can only win games that are around 3 hours, it’s a freakin’ win-win for everyone.

Notre Dame football is 1-3.  The sky is now falling.  Knee-jerk reactions on the Kelly regime are flying around.  I’m sure soon I’ll be reading how ND can’t recruit with the rest of college football and doesn’t have the speed to compete as well.  Some people my also be wondering why we can’t have a coach like Harbaugh and a team like Stanford.

Then there are those crazy people like myself who actually take a step back and look at the big picture.  An Irish fan that, while disappointed, is far from ready to hit the panic button.

I’ll do the statistical analysis in another post soon, but as far as my personal reaction to the game, the better team won plain and simple.  Yes, Stanford is far better than Notre Dame right now and anyone shocked by this fact hasn’t been paying attention to college football the past couple of years.  Stanford is a team now ranked #9 in the county, 4th in points for, 12th in points against, 19th in total rushing, and their narrowest margin of victory is 23.  They are good, damn good.

The Irish, however, are not that damned bad.

No, I haven’t lost it.  Let’s just take a look at the Stanford game for a quick second.  Stanford’s narrowest margin of victory is 23 and the team that was against? Notre Dame.  The first defense to make Andrew Luck turn the ball over? Notre Dame.  Before this game, Stanford was #1 in pass defense giving up only 90 yards/game.  After ND: now 11th with their average bumped up to 144.25 yards/game.

Michigan State had to perfectly execute a ballsy fake FG to beat us.  Michigan had a last minute TD drive to defeat us (and a half without our best player).

To sum up the Irish’s current situation, it’s time to channel good ‘ol Dr. Lou: “Things are never as good as they seem and things are never as bad as they seem.”  We don’t have to look that far back into ND’s recent history to prove this fact.

Of course, the Lou Holtz first year comparisons are obvious.  His first year started with consecutive losses against Michigan and Michigan State, a victory against Purude, and a loss to Alabama.  Yep, good ‘ol Lou started 1-3 himself on his way to a 5-6 season and much like Kelly, his initial losses are quite similar as far as margin goes: two one score losses, a solid win, and a multiple score loss.

But wait, what about Bob Davie?! He also started 1-3 AND lost to Stanford the following week!  Well, that Stanford team was also 5-6 that season and his one win to start was 17-13 against a very mediocre Georgia Tech team that finished 7-5 that season.

Great first seasons aren’t exactly a fantastic measuring stick of how well a coach will do during his tenure.  Look no further than Ty Willingham who had a 10-3 first season and Charlie Weis who had not one, but two great seasons at 9-3 and 10-3.  The end result of those three amazing rides though were the same: the Irish were on the wrong side of a bowl game ass-kicking.  Things weren’t as nearly as great as they seemed then.

For those wondering why we can’t be the kind of running, pound-it-down-your-throat team like Stanford and having such a great coach like Harbaugh, I wonder how many of your would’ve liked his first few seasons.  Harbaugh took over a 1-11 team and improved them to only 4-8, which one of those losses coming against the woeful 2007 Irish team that was 3-9.  Of course, he did manage to throw in an crazy upset against USC that I’m sure helped to ease the pain.  His second season wasn’t much better though.  Stanford went 5-7 and USC got their revenge.  Last year though, Stanford turned the corner and went 8-5, which included a USC curb-stomping that I will forever love him for.

Now they are 4-0 and #9 in the nation.

Kelly’s starting situation is not nearly as dire as Harbaugh’s was, but he still has quite a bit to overcome.  The fact of the matter is that he took over a 6-6 team whose two biggest stars decided to leave early and go play football on Sundays.  Dayne Crist’s timetable got bumped up in a hurry and a huge hole was left in the WR corps to start everything off.  Both Willingham and Weis had the luxury of not only having upperclassmen as their starting QBs, but also QBs that had at least a full season of starting under their belts.  Both Holiday and Quinn also had receivers that stepped up for them in big ways during their great runs.

ND may still have Floyd and a damned good TE in Rudolph, but Crist is still very green and there isn’t much that we can do about that.  It’s going to take time for him to get better and not only adjust to Kelly’s new offense, but being a starting college QB in general.  I’m definitely critical of his pocket presence and accuracy (or lack thereof), but take a look at Quinn and Clausen in their first year under the helm and the results were not pretty either.

Add on to that with the fact that Kelly took over a woeful defense that could use another ten Manti T’eos.  There has been some marked improvement, but this has been a recruiting gap for years that is slowly (but hopefully, surely) getting its holes plugged in.

That’s the current reality that this team is in as of right now.  If Crist doesn’t get his head knocked around against Michigan and Calabrese is able to jam his man for a second longer on the fake FG, and we could very well be 3-1 and saying today “damn, we got beat by a good team, that sucks, let’s go get BC next week.”

The season is far from dead. Winning out isn’t very likely, but a chance to improve on last season is definitely well within reach.  Sure, it would be a disappointment to many, but you first have to stop the bleeding before the wound begins to heal.  Make no mistake, this program has been bleeding since 2007 and even an offense headed by Clausen, Tate, Floyd, and Rudolph couldn’t stop it.

When you take a step back and look at the big picture, you have to honestly ask yourself if the current results are really all that surprising.  Sure, we all get swept in by the optimism that a regime change can bring, and we can all be disappointed in the current results that we are seeing, but folks never forget that it could be worse, it could be FAR, FAR worse:

Postgame Thoughts

Since I’m a little bit more behind schedule for posting due to my recent travels, I’m going to combine both my reactions as well as statistical analysis in the same post.  This way, I will hopefully be able to get to a Stanford pregame post within the next couple of days.

Anyways, this was a game that, truthfully, I thought we would lose.  Definitely not in the fashion that we did, but I felt that our rushing defense was still far too unproven to hold up against the rushing attack of Michigan State.  I was right and wrong there.  We did lose, but it wasn’t because of the Spartan rushing attack.

The sad truth is that we are 1-2 and we got there by awful mistakes.  They are mistakes that young teams make.  They are mistakes that teams playing with on-the-road-nerves make.  They are mistakes that teams knowing they have a huge losing monkey on their backs make.

You can take your picks of which mistake you wish to highlight against the Spartans.  It could be ND failing to close yet another game and allowing the Spartans to tie the game up.  You could point to a seemingly disciplined team acting completely out of character and raking up penalties at the worst possible times.  We can blame Dayne Crist being horribly inaccurate for a decent portion of the game.  You can replay the fake field goal ad nauseum, as I did, and sake your head as Carlo Calabrese and Harrison Smith fell all over each other to spring an open receiver.  Hell, we can even wonder what in the hell is wrong with Michael Floyd as he continues to drop and fumble balls uncharacteristically.

My notes are filled with marks in which we could’ve drastically changed the direction of the game.  My notes are also filled with marks in which Michigan State could’ve completely taken us out of the game.

I’m not trying to make excuses for the teams because we could honestly just as easily be 3-0 if we don’t shoot ourselves in the foot; however, the reality is that this team still doesn’t have it together yet.  There are flashes of hope, but we haven’t had the complete game in which we’ve executed, not simply playing hard, but executing for all four quarters.

Every game is getting better in its own way.  Despite Floyd’s issues, he definitely had marked improvement in this game.  I’m still a bit worried about what is going on in his head, but Floyd had moments were he finally looked like the Cannon.  Theo Riddick looked like a WR and a damn good one at that.  If he didn’t get a game ball for his performance, it would be a crime.  His continued improvement will force defenses to respect him and that just means more looks for Floyd and Jones.

On the defensive side, I was floored by our rushing defense.  We still lack the side-to-side speed, but we are no longer getting steamrolled up the middle.  Tackling has definitely improved, and players are not getting caught out of position nearly as often as we’ve seen in the past.  T’eo was a wrecking ball for most of the game, even though he did get burned going for a KO instead of wrapping up behind the line (next play was a Spartan TD as well).  And Gary Gray has to be the best surprise of the year so far on defense.  He was breaking up passes and making tackles in space like crazy.

There are positives.  This situation isn’t as bleak as our record makes things seem.  It sucks all the same, but I’m either numb to heartbreaking losses at this point or I feel like we are close to turning the corner.  God, I hope it’s the later…

Also, my piece on the fake FG:  crying about a delay of game is a fool’s errand in my opinion.  I watched the play several times at full speed and it is really hard to tell that the snap was late.  Second, we were prepped for it.  Calabrese just didn’t fully jam his man and it helped to complete the pick of both him and Smith to fall all over each other.  That’s exactly how that play is drawn up, tip your hat, we got burned.

Next Page: By the Numbers

Being an engineer, sports nerd, and nerd in general, one thing I always love to do is dive into the numbers when I have time.  Last football season was the first time that I was really able to do this, albeit more with the Dallas Cowboys than Notre Dame.  I did a whole series for another website in which I examined the Cowboys offense, particularly focusing on play calling balance and red zone efficiency.  While I sadly don’t have the free time this year to hit someone else’s publishing schedule, this does free up more time for me to do the same with Notre Dame football.

I will be keeping a spreadsheet of stats via the wonder that is Google Docs, so if you wish to play along you can see I’m not pulling these numbers out of my ass.  Like I did with the Cowboys last season, I will highlight play balance and red zone efficiency of our offense.  This season I believe is a perfect time to start seeing as how we are under a completely new offensive scheme and our QBs love throwing into the stands while in the red zone.  Everyone loves to chime in on “we need to run the ball more” or “why are we passing here” and wish they had the headset on.  My analysis of this balance should hopefully show the method to the BK madness (except for FG-gate, totally done with that).

Since I’m not limited by another editor this time around like I was with my Cowboys analysis, I will also keep track of the exact same stats and play calling patterns of all of our opponents.  I want to see how teams approach and attack us and most importantly, I want to see how our defense reacts to it.  ND’s defense is by far the number one concern of this team, so I’m really looking forward to diving into those numbers throughout the season.

Now, for a couple of explanations on some numbers and terms I will use so we are all on the same page.  If you want to skip over this wall-of-text and get straight to the numbers, you can skip to the Purdue analysis (or if you want to bypass that game, head on to the Michigan analysis).

Firstly, I consider a “Red Zone Visit” any time a drive gets inside the 20–even if it’s just one play in the drive.  Furthermore, if a drive hits the red zone, backs out, and reaches it again, I consider this two visits.  I mostly do this for consistency sake.  Expanding upon this, a “Goal-to-Go” situation arises any time our drives hit a “1st and Goal” situation.  I think this is beyond vital for any red zone analysis because you aren’t just knocking on the door here, you are about to kick the damn thing down, and personally I believe you should.  It is for this reason I will not keep track of FG inside the 10 for my percentage calculations as I consider anything but a TD a failure here.

In order to track the proper number of times we run a pass play, sacks are counted as well as passing attempts.  College football is slightly annoying here as it counts sacks as negative rushing plays.  Therefore, sacks will be taken out of the “Rushing Attempts” category on my spreadsheet and not counted as a “Rushing Play” (however, I’ll leave the yards alone as I don’t really care about that).  This will only happen in the “Play Selection” section as I count passing and rushing plays by hand in the red zone instead of just using the box score.

Something else I do that other websites like ESPN don’t is count a turnover on downs as an actual turnover.  Considering the massive momentum changes that a failed fourth down can provide, I honestly don’t see a reason not to do this.

I will be keeping track of how many times drives are stalled by a “Three and Out”.  Note that this is only going to count drives which are stalled in normal fashion, aka, turnovers don’t count here, including going for it on fourth down.  Again, this is mostly for consistency in my numbers.

Finally, I will be keeping track of the number and scoring results of drives that start in “plus” territory, noted “50+” on the spreadsheet.  Basically, anytime a drive is started in opposing territory, I want to see how often we take advantage of it.  On the defensive side of the ball, I want to see how often we are able to step up and prevent points.

I believe that should cover everything, now onto the analysis.

Next Page – Purdue: By the Numbers

I’ve returned from my vacation.  I’ve moved from being insanely pissed off about having my heart ripped out by yet another last second Skunkbear TD to only moderately depressed (thank you Texas Rangers for softening that blow, and screw you Dallas Cowboys for re-opening the wound).  I’ve taken the time to get together all my thoughts on how to approach this post because there is a lot to talk about.

I also just did a bunch of work emails and I still can’t sleep, so here we go!

First off, I need to give credit where credit is due. Denard Robinson is a fucking beast (and yes the f-bomb is totally necessary).  I’m not even hugely upset for the most part in how ND defending him.  There were just points where his speed flat out left the defense scrambling to contain him.  The kid is Michigan football right now and there is no doubt about it.  He stepped up and took the game over, kudos to him.

Now time to spew some venom.

Let’s address the elephant in the room: yes, I thought Kelly should’ve kicked the damned field goal and, no, I don’t think it cost us the game, although having the hindsight to see the last play could’ve been a 41 yard game winning FG attempt doesn’t make this any easier to swallow.  Now with my disagreement noted, I do see why Kelly was tempted and eventually did go for it.  It’s a huge gamble and yes, there are logical reasons to try for it, even if I don’t agree with them.

That all being said, Kelly wasn’t on the 1-yard line and we aren’t playing NCAA ’11 and I’m firmly in the camp of “if you can take three points, FOR THE LOVE OF GOD TAKE THEM” if anything more than a QB sneak or HB/FB dive over the pile is required to get the TD.  It’s a chance I don’t ever want to take and here is why: there is so much football left to be played.  Yes, I get an 11 point deficit isn’t much better than 14; however, what the hell does even clawing back within 7 matter when you are giving the ball right back to your opponent at the start of the second half?  I could come up with thousands of different scoring combinations for both teams to make several heads spin.  Long story short, you never have a clue what will happen and trying to “pull within a single score” is horribly short-sighted.

Not only that, why in the hell are you doing this with Nate f’n Montana?  I would’ve rather seen an attempt at a run play instead of what we drew up.  But of course, I know we needed to pass, Michigan knew we needed to pass, and even the usher spending more time looking for smuggled in marshmallows in the senior section than watching the game knew we needed to pass.  Maybe with Crist I could somewhat justify it, but trying to pass with Montana in that situation is absurd, especially when the defense is waiting for it.

Time to put the dead horse to sleep, but in the end, you thank your lucky starts you aren’t down by 20 more points after you’ve been sent reeling on both sides of the ball and you try to settle Nate down as best you can during halftime.  Is BK going to magically fix his tunnel vision at the half? No, but putting Nate in an air-mail situation isn’t going to do anything for his confidence either.  Lie to the kid and tell him you took the FG because you feel he can put some drives together and he just proved that to you on the previous drive.

And on the whole “BK didn’t know Crist was coming back” that’s a half-truth.  Crist was warming up with his helmet on and was in Kelly’s ear and in each huddle clearly showing he felt he was ok well before the half was over.  I guarantee the training staff told BK to err on the side of caution and wait for a halftime evaluation. So yes, he wasn’t 100% sure he’d be back in, but I’m sure he had a good feeling that a return was more than probable.  So again, you are taking unneeded risks.

Anyways, dead horse is beyond dead.  Moving on: Reese, why the hell was he in the game? If BK had such a short leash on him to pull him after a couple of series, why even bother?  That’s a one way ticket to send Reese into instant head-case status and have the opposing defense smell massive amounts of desperation from your direction.  Not too mention the idea of a flea-flicker to “eliminate reads” makes no sense and was such a monumentally bad idea, I don’t even have words for it.  Reese didn’t even make a read, he was damn near soiling himself, caught the pitch from Allen and threw to where he thought he remembered the receiver would be and forgot reading the defense is a good idea.

I don’t mean to demean Reese at all here, so don’t get me wrong.  That’s just an awful situation to throw a kid into.  Don’t toss in a damned trick play when the kid will be very understandably jittery.  BK got too cute with it, plain and simple.

Now to the defense.  Yes, they did a decent job in the game, but a couple major brain-farts really screwed them in the long run.  Michigan’s first TD was set up by some sort of zone coverage confusion by either Walls or one of the safeties.  Either way, Walls played the short route and no one had the zone over the top to help and it looked just awful.  Those mental mistakes cannot happen.  The 96 yard run was brutal too–I don’t care who is running the ball, big plays like that is the result of complete breakdowns.

On to Crist.  He came in looking like he could walk on water when he came back in the game then seemingly promptly forgot what he was doing at times.  Granted, some of the incompletions were not his fault, but there were two glaring issues that drove me nuts.  The first is his timing on any timing route: it’s awful and the ball was on our receivers well before their heads ever turned around.  That needs to change pronto.  Same with the air mailing of balls into the endzone.  Crist seems beyond terrified to throw an INT in the endzone, which is good, but not to the point to where damn near every ball thrown into it has a better chance of being caught by a fan than your own man.  Also, there is no shame in throwing a pick on a Hail Mary to end the game–let your receivers try to make a miracle happen.  Finally, remember what I said last week about Crist going into panic mode under pressure? Rewatch his pick if you can stomach it because that was full blown panic mode and beyond a terrible decision (except this time instead of running it like he should have, he threw it…go figure).

And to end the rant, we get to Michael Floyd who is firmly planted my shit-list for the time being.  Yes, I have been in his corner big time since he’s been here, but this game pissed me off.  It wasn’t just the drops, which was very un-Floyd like to begin with, but it was him pulling a Shaq Evans during the Alma Mater.  I’m not sure if NBC had any footage of it (and I doubt it since I saw no mentions on it on Twitter), and I couldn’t get a good enough shot myself on my phone from my seat; however, sure enough, there he stood, helmet on, and started to jog into the tunnel as “Love thee Notre Dame” was sung.  Selfish attitude needs to go dude.  I’m sure you are pissed that you got zero chance to make a play on the ball at game’s end or even possibly at your own crappy performance throughout; however, those actions look completely selfish and have no place on the field.  It looked like he was hanging his QB and team out to dry and that’s just shameful.  I expect far better from him as a supposed leader of this team.

I’m calling it now, if Floyd doesn’t come out against MSU with a different attitude and playing like his life depended on it, I fear for his production the rest of the season.  I might be overreacting, but keep in mind, I’ve had to deal with T.O. before.  I know Floyd is seeing far more double coverage, but he isn’t playing like himself at all as of now and his actions during the Alma Mater have be beyond worried about where his head is at.

I do really hate that most of this post is a giant rant because there are some positives to be had here.  I just hate losing games that I feel we should have won.  Rudolph’s 95 yard TD should have been a shining example on how easy it should’ve been to carve Michigan up, even with limited play time from Crist.  This team is growing and as I said in my preview, the holes we have are now exposed.  They aren’t horrendous and these players will continue to grow.

I’m going to try to do some statistical analysis from the last two games soon and do some emotionless blogging to get another perspective on where we are at.  I won’t promise BGS quality, but I’ll give it a damn good shot.  It’ll be therapeutic after a loss like this.

God, I hate losing to Michigan…

I hope everyone is enjoying Michigan Sucks week as much as I have. While being out on a river for a few days is quite a bit of fun, it doesn’t help me study the Skunkbears too well. Like my last mobile post, this one too will be a bit briefer than usual.

Despite not being able to study up on Michigan, it doesn’t take much to realize the key matchup will be how the Irish defense handles Denard Robinson. While I’m sure NBC will beat everyone over the head with Robinson’s shoe-tying abilities (or lack thereof), here is what should pop out: 186 passing yards, 197 rushing yards, 0 INTs, and a 86.4 completion percentage.

Dual-threat QB is an understatement.

The Irish front seven will definitely have their hands full. Last week against Purdue, the pass rush had a bit of a hard time adjusting to Marve’s constant bootlegs and Henry’s rushes for the brief time he was in. Robinson will be a whole other animal (and a much faster one at that) and will be a true test to see where Notre Dame’s front seven is at.

I’m honestly not too worried about our secondary, although they will face a much faster WR corps. If we do have some holes, they will be exposed Saturday.

On the other side of the ball, the Irish should be torching the ever living hell out of Michigan’s piss-poor secondary. While UCONN only put up 10 points, they did manage to throw for over 200 yards against a secondary that I swear is being held together by duct tape this season. ND has many more options with far greater talent than UCONN had. If the Skunkbear secondary is being embarrassed repeatedly, I will be shocked.

Of course, this means the onus will be squarely on Crist to make plays and be accurate. The only way I can see Michigan surviving ND’s offense will be to put mountains of pressure on Crist and pray he panics.

The final thing to watch is ball security. The Irish were playing hot potato far too often against Purdue. Thankfully, only one of these fumbles resulted in a turnover, but a couple turnovers could spell disaster for the Irish in no time.

Best case scenario is that the Irish defense shuts down Robinson and roll all over Michigan. Worst case scenario is a straight up shootout. In the end though, Michigan still sucks, Ann Arbor is a whore, and my prediction is an Irish win, 38-27.

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